Friday, June 20, 2008

A Friend's View

Thursday, June 19, 2008

BN component break ranks, invites trouble

IT WON'T be easy for anyone to try and pass a vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister in the Dewan Rakyat. Everyone knows that. And Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, as Umno president and BN Chairman, knows that very well too.

SAPP's Dato Yong Teck Lee'snnouncement in Kota Kinabalu yesterday that he and his fellow MP from the party would support any motion of no confidence in Parliament on Monday attracted much attention in and outside Sabah. And maybe that's about all that he can get - public and media attention.

Much has been said about the difficulties anyone would face in wanting to table let alone pass a motion of no confidence. Then again, this won't stop Abdullah's and the BN's oppononent from trying. The actual attempt alone is enough to attract the people's and media's attention.

While the actual attemp to table and pass a vote of no confidence against the Government and the present leadership is difficult, the very expression by Yong and the SAPP, a component of the ruling federal coalition, is bad enough already.

As far as I recall, there's not been a similar attempt and such an open declaration by a BN component ever before. The BN leadership must make a quick decision on this, including taking firm disciplinary action against Yong and gang, including expulsion from the coalition.

Media reports said Yong have had two discussions with de factor PKR Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. Leaving the BN and joining the PKR must have featured high on the agenda during talks between them. By making the statement yesterday, the SAPP is no longer a BN component in word and deed.

There's been much speculation of the SAPP leaving the BN in last couple of weeks. Only the actual execution remains.

Political observers argue that Yong's action does not necessarily stem from his contention that Sabah is left out of mainstream economic development alone. It also stems from his perception that the PM is weak and vulnerable. The sound bytes at the press conference made that quite apparent to all and sundry.

Yong's action and statement has caused much embarassment to Pak Lah, SAPP being a small component of the BN notwithstanding. SAPP have four state seats in the Sabah Legislative Assembly. Would his statement against the federal Government also reflect his sentiments against the State Govt led by Dato Musa Aman?

He didn't say so, but I would conclude so. Shouldn't Yong then also declare loss of confidence against his state boss? Mind you, Yong was also Chief minister of the state once before, and had enjoyed the support of his BN colleagues in and outside Sabah.

Yong's statement would mean a full house at the Dewan Rakyat on Monday and the following days. Yong may even have another press conference in the Dewan's lobby to reiterate his stand. Yong is stretching the limit and trying to take advantage of the situation and making an attempt to change the political landscape. Again that is.

Yong was duly taken to task by his BN colleagues. The PKR said it was 'brave' of him to do that. Let's see how this drama plays itself out next week.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Branches: "Don't underestimate us!"

THE number of statements top Umno leaders have been making in the past week or so continue to be analysed and "read" by their friends and foes alike. There's a lot of second guessing going on, and conclusions are being made depending on which side of the fence one is on.

Party president Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's statement that he and his deputy, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, have discussed the power transfer issue and come to an understanding is met with a sigh of relief in some quarters, and a flurry of questions in others.

Najib's statement that he's not taking on his boss in the party elections also triggered much debate, especially with whispers that he's aiming for the top spot, and that many of his supporters want him to be more pro-active in going up the party hierarchy.

And when Pak Lah declared that he's ready to defend his post should there be any challenges in the December party election, some people concluded that he's not about to pass the baton to Najib so soon after all.

At this stage, only Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has declared that he's going to challenge Pak Lah. Provided he is able to get the 30 per cent nomination (that's 58 divisions) to qualify to make a serious bid on the presidency, and that is not going to be easy.

Ku Li's backers are going around confidently predicting that the Kelantan prince's bid is gaining momentum. By the time the election is held, they are sure Ku Li will get the required number of nominations to challenge Pak Lah.

While the numbers are being done, matched and doubled-checked, the backers of the main proponents will also be monitoring the branch meetings scheduled to start next month. I'm not sure of the exact number of branches but there's more than 20,000 of them nationwide except in Sarawak. The branches will also be conducting their election of office bearers.

From my understanding, the branches have no direct say in the nominations but they can make their voices heard through other ways. Many branch leaders have met Pak Lah in a series of meetings and briefings on party and national matters. Some may have made their views known during these meetings.

I'm told some branches may pass resolutions outlining their views on the state of the party and the party leadership. Since they cannot nominate, they can make known their preferences via special resolutions which will be forwarded to their divisions which will be having their own elections in October.

Which is why party leaders, especially those in the supreme council, is paying extra attention to branch elections and what messages they want to convey to party bosses. One branch chief told me Umno must go back to basics if it wants to be relevant in national politics.

"Don't underestimate the branches and their voices. We know what and who we want, and we have our ways of getting them heard and delivered," he said. I wonder that means, and sounds like a warning too.